A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
